May 14th, 2010

First-Quarter Tales

Foreclosures have been our biggest problem for a very long time. I can’t even remember a time when Americans weren’t worried about losing their homes to foreclosure. Foreclosure rates have been going through the roof for the better part of the last four years, and almost nothing that the government has done to try and solve the problem has actually done so. However, there is a bright side to all of this; a bright side that comes in the form of increased home sales.

In nearly 60 percent of American cities, home process increased during the first quarter of 2010. How does this have to do with the high foreclosure rates, you ask? Well, one out of every three of these sales came on foreclosed properties. That number is unparalleled.

The tax credit has also had a huge impact on the numbers that we are seeing. The tax credit has been responsible for persuading thousands- no, millions- of Americans that the time to buy is now. Without it, we would likely have nothing good to say about the market right now.

We must be thankful for every bit of good news that we get these days. It seems like every other day, there is some new bit of information that we have to worry about. Right now, the sun is peaking through the clouds. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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May 13th, 2010

More Drops Coming

Everyone knows about certain cities in which the real estate crisis was more than a crisis. Detroit is one example. The city was ravaged after home prices hit the floor a couple of years back. Everybody knows about states such as California, Nevada, and Arizona, whose real estate markets hit rock bottom after prices fell from a cliff. But not everybody knows about what is coming next. Not everybody knows about cities like Atlantic City.

Atlantic City, New Jersey, is the next to fall, according to a survey tool called Local Market Monitor. Over the next 12 months, Atlantic City is expected to experience the largest drop in home value out of any city in the country. Why is this? After all, Atlantic City has a bustling economy due to its reputation as one of the country’s prime gambling hotspots. However, that may have been the city’s downfall. Like the states of California, Nevada, and Arizona, Atlantic City’s home values were way up there during the real estate peak of 2006. Prices were extremely inflated. That means, when process fell, they fell harder than they did anywhere else. Prices hit the floor, and many residents of the city were left out of luck.

Unlike California, Arizona, and Nevada, however, Atlantic City still has a ways to go. Home values are expected to drop by 9 percent there before all is said and done. That means that many of the nation’s locales, such as Atlantic City, are far from out of trouble.

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May 10th, 2010

Weathering the Storm

Everyone always tells you that all of us are affected equally by the recent real estate crisis. After all, the wealthy sector of the market has suffered along with the rest of us. However, there are those who have escaped from this whole ordeal. Yes, everyone knows about Wall Street executives, but there are other people who have escaped from criticism. I am talking about homebuilder executives.

While millions of Americans have been forced out of their homes, top CEOs in these homebuilding companies continue to reap the benefits. They may not be on the level of some Wall Street brokers, but these top executives do rake in, on average, $6 million per year. That’s no chump change.

Why is this a problem, though? Why should we be upset that some executives are earning their money through hard work? Well, to answer that question, allow me to remind everyone that many of these executives’ companies have received government bailout money. Many of their companies have suffered while they themselves have prospered. D.R. Horton’s building company has lost more than $3.9 million due to the financial crisis, and he has laid off 53 percent of his workers- however, he has managed to rake in the dough. His earnings from 2007-2009 sit at a cool $17.6 million. Obviously, being an executive has its perks.

Once again, we see a situation where money that should be going to millions of Americans somehow arrives in the hands of a lucky few people. Some people have managed to weather the storm quite nicely.

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May 6th, 2010

Job Market News

The past year has been the worst year in terms of real estate in recent memory. Home prices plummeted (along with values), foreclosures rose to record highs, and many people were out of jobs. This last aspect of the economy has had arguably the greatest impact on the rest of the real estate market. Without job opportunities, holes can be patched, but nothing can ever be truly fixed. For this reason, it is important for us to understand what make this past year one of the worst in terms of job growth.

Unemployment and job opportunities go hand in hand; without job opportunities, more and more people lose their jobs. But how are these job opportunities measured? There is an annual survey of most of the important metropolitan areas in the country, and experts use this data to measure the strength of the job market. This data shows how many metro areas have seen a growth in job opportunities. From January 2009 to January 2010, said survey found a meager 13 metro areas with any job growth whatsoever. These are horrible numbers; to put them in perspective, let’s look at the numbers from 2007. That year, 283 out of a possible 393 job markets experienced growth.

Clearly, we have identified the problem. Nothing will truly get better until these meager numbers bulk up a bit. We can patch the holes quite easily; it is the subsequent leaks that we really have to worry about.

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May 5th, 2010

Washed Out

Everyone has been down in the dumps recently. And I can’t blame them, to be honest- the tax credit has expired, home prices are still nowhere near their 2006 levels, and there is just a general sense of despair in the air. However, buck up, people. There is something to be happy about. People actually want to buy homes now. There is demand. That is exactly what we have been craving for the past few years. Why feel unhappy now that it has happened?

The rise in buyer interest means that prices will eventually be driven up. It is simple supply and demand- more interest, less supply, more demand, and higher prices. Homes are selling faster. Realtors are scrambling to meet the demands of their feverishly-paced clients. It has all been well and good…but what does the future hold?

The tax credit has just expired. Will this drive demand- and, thus, prices- back down? Can we weather the storm if this actually happens?

We cannot know this. There is no way to tell the future. Only logic can serve us now. It is very likely that all of this good news will soon fall by the wayside due to the inevitable decrease in home buying and buyer interest. However, there is no reason to get bent out of shape about it now. This is only speculation until it actually happens. Enjoy the view before it is washed out by clouds.

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May 4th, 2010

Tough Times

It has been a long time since we have seen an annual increase in home prices. Three years, in fact. It has been a long and arduous road, but all of the work that the government has done to prevent a total collapse of the housing market has, in fact, paid off. The data is in- Home prices posted their first annual increase in three years back in February.

The gain was a modest one- only 0.6 percent- and, yes, experts had expected the increase to be twice as large. In addition, 11 out of 20 cities surveyed posted annual decreases in the month of February. This news was just about enough to put a damper on the festivities.

In May, the statistics are a little bit different. The feeling in the air is not one of hope, but rather one of despair. Home prices are still down 30 percent from their peak in 2006.

Nobody knows what to make of these statistics. There is relatively little to feel hopeful about; although we had an increase, it was a modest one, and, nationally, we are still in pretty bad shape. This is bad news, considering the tax credit- our life raft in the storm that is the housing market collapse- has just expired. We can expect some tough times ahead- even tougher than the ones we have just experienced.

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May 3rd, 2010

When the Dust Settles

If you have been conscious during the past year, you probably know that the tax credit- originally for first-time buyers but extended to include everybody- was set to expire on April 30th. And that it did. The incident came and went without incident- well, other than the huge rise in buying and selling.

Yes, as expected, homes were being sold at a feverous pace as both buyers and sellers alike sought to beat the buzzer. Frenzied activity was all but unexpected; experts have been anticipating this date since the tax credit was extended back in November. Real estate agencies have been working around the clock to meet the needs of those who waited until the very last minute to get the steal of a lifetime.

The effect of this rush in activity is two-fold; one of the effects being very short-lived. First of all, the rush has provided extra business for real estate agents. Considering the unemployment crisis has been looming large over the country for the better part of the last four years, some extra work cannot be a bad thing. On the other hand, this rush in activity may cause a market downturn in the following months. Experts hope that the rush of activity will carry over into the next few months, but it is entirely possible that activity will deaden after the dust settles. We can’t control it; we can only be aware of it.

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April 29th, 2010

Costly Errors

The one thing that prospective buyers look at when trying to buy a home is the home’s price. If you are going to remember one number, it will likely be the price. Nowadays, that is even truer. Because it is a buyer’s market now, there are deals to be found. Home buyers are on the lookout for the deal of the century; the steal of a lifetime. However, that can lead to disaster.

I wrote an article on Monday that detailed the steps you, as a home buyer, need to go through before you actually buy a home. Setting up a budget is the first step. You need to know the maximum amount of money that you can spend on a home each month. You need to know exactly how much money is at your disposal. If you don’t know that, then you will be very unhappy, very quickly. In addition, you need to leave yourself a lot of breathing room, especially in the first month. Remember, the mortgage is not the only thing that you are going to have to pay. You are going to be responsible for paying the moving costs, new mortgage fees, and closing costs. You will need to clean up your credit if it is less than spotless. These closing costs could be tens of thousands of dollars, depending on how much your new home is worth.

In short, there is a lot that needs to be accounted for before you sign the dotted line. You need to be aware of what you are getting yourself into, or else you will be out of a home again before you know it.

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April 28th, 2010

Enjoy the Weather

Enjoy the weather. It has been two months since blizzards rendered the greater DC area helpless. These blizzards were more than an inconvenience; they even hindered home sales.

However, the sun is now out. Home sales experienced their biggest jump in 47 years, as sales were up 27 percent from February to March. Wow. If that isn’t a sign that the real estate market is on its way to recovery, then I don’t know what is.

Well, there is a catch. These numbers are probably wildly inflated. Sorry to burst your optimistic bubble. Why, you ask? Because the tax credit runs out in a week. Yes, the tax credit that had been extended until the end of April, it runs out at the end of this week.

Once this tax credit runs out, sales will inevitably fall through the floor. Experts argue that the high number of home sales is due to the fact that many people are trying to take advantage of the tax credit before it runs out. That, and the good weather that we have been having recently (yes, weather can, in fact, have an impact on home sales).

Still, 27 percent is nothing to turn up your nose at. We have gone through many tough years; sometimes, you have to look at the bright side. Enjoy the weather while it lasts.

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April 27th, 2010

In The Long Run

It is always difficult to sell your home in a buyer’s market. Now is no exception. In fact, because of the current state of the economy, you will probably have to work even harder to sell your home than you ever imagined.

What makes this a buyer’s market, first of all? There are many more people trying to sell than there would be in a normal year. The increased availability of homes on the market ultimately drives the price down due to supply and demand. The fact that you, as a seller, probably needs to sell your home more than a buyer needs to buy it is another thing that drives prices down. The party with the least at stake in the deal has the most power.

That being said, it is not impossible to sell your home; it just takes a lot more work than it would have four years ago. You need to make your home attractive to all potential buyers; that should be your main concern as a seller. This includes both aesthetic changes (fixing problems, beautifying, etc.) and changes in the price (dropping it, mainly).

It is still going to be a difficult process; don’t expect your home to sell overnight, or even at all. You need to have patience, and you need to be willing to part ways with some of your hard-earned money. You will probably need to drop prices well below your comfort range even after all the changes are made. It will be worth it for you in the long run.

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